AMD & ATI: The Acquisition from all Points of View
by Anand Lal Shimpi on August 1, 2006 10:26 PM EST- Posted in
- CPUs
ATI's Position
Obviously ATI is also very excited about the acquisition, but from ATI's perspective the motivations for and benefits of the acquisition are a bit different.
ATI's goal is to continue to grow at a rate of 20% per year, but maintaining that growth rate becomes increasingly more difficult as an independent GPU manufacturer. The AMD acquisition will give ATI the ability to compete in areas that it hasn't before, while also giving the company the stable footing it needs to maintaining aggressive growth.
From ATI's position, it's NVIDIA that is left out in the cold as Intel is surely not going to support NVIDIA enough to be a truly great partner. ATI will have AMD, and Intel is content being fairly self sufficient, so unless NVIDIA becomes a CPU manufacturer, its future is bleak according to ATI.
Preparing for the Inevitable Confrontation with Intel
From ATI's standpoint, it's only a matter of time before the GPU becomes general purpose enough that it could be designed and manufactured by a CPU maker. Taking the concern one step further, ATI's worried that in the coming years Intel will introduce its standalone GPU and really turn up the heat on the remaining independent GPU makers. By partnering with AMD, ATI believes that it would be better prepared for what it believes is the inevitable confrontation with Intel. From ATI's perspective, Intel is too strong in CPU design, manufacturing and marketing to compete against when the inevitable move into the GPU space occurs.
Competing with NVIDIA is Tough, this Makes it Easier
It's no surprise to anyone that competing with NVIDIA isn't easy; the easiest time ATI had competing with NVIDIA in recent history was back during the Radeon 9700 Pro days, but since then NVIDIA has really turned up the heat and currently enjoys greater desktop market share. Not only does it have greater desktop market share, but NVIDIA also enjoys greater profit margins per GPU sold thanks to smaller die sizes. By being acquired by AMD, ATI gets a bit of relief from the competition with NVIDIA, as well as some potential advantages. Those advantages include the potential to build and execute better AMD chipsets as well as gaining greater overall graphics market share by shipping more platforms with integrated graphics (either on CPU or on chipset). Intel is actually the world's largest graphics manufacturer, since the vast majority of Intel systems sold ship with some form of Intel integrated graphics; through this acquisition, AMD can use ATI to do the same, which should increase ATI's overall market share.
Making Better AMD Chipsets
ATI has struggled to design, manufacture and execute a chipset that could compete with NVIDIA's nForce line. To date, ATI has come close but not been able to close the deal and it has been trying for years. In theory, with better access to AMD engineers and designers, being able to leverage AMD's IP (e.g. CrossFire implemented over Hyper Transport) and eventually being able to use AMD's fabs, ATI could design a truly competitive platform for AMD processors. As long as the product is decent, AMD would also be able to significantly increase sales by simply offering attractive platform bundles similar to what Intel does today. Whether the approach is more similar to Centrino where AMD requires that you purchase only AMD silicon, or more like how Intel does business on the desktop side where AMD makes sure that only its chipsets are available at launch has yet to be seen.
The Manufacturing & Design Advantage
Currently both ATI and NVIDIA have to turn to third party manufacturers to produce both their chipsets and GPUs. If this acquisition were to go through, AMD could eventually begin manufacturing some chipsets or GPUs for ATI. By manufacturing components in house, ATI would be able to enjoy a cost advantage over competing NVIDIA products (especially if ATI is simply using leftover capacity at older fabs that are awaiting transition to smaller manufacturing processes). ATI could potentially begin to release GPUs using newer process technologies before the competition as well, reducing die size and increasing clock speeds at the same time.
Manufacturing aside, there's also this idea that companies like AMD and Intel are better at designing silicon because they work on a more granular level with the design. There's far more custom logic in Intel's Core 2 Duo than in NVIDIA's GeForce 7900 GTX; ATI would gain access to AMD's entire portfolio of custom logic and may be able to implement some of it in its upcoming GPUs, giving ATI a performance and efficiency advantage over NVIDIA.
It Makes Financial Sense
Of course the actual acquisition itself is very beneficial to ATI's investors, as the deal is mostly cash and thus little risk is assumed on behalf of ATI investors. ATI's stock has been doing quite well since the announcement, and why shouldn't it? The #2 x86 microprocessor maker wants to buy ATI.
What about Intel Chipsets?
Currently 60 - 70% of ATI's chipset revenues come from Intel platforms, but ATI expects that number to decline significantly over the coming months. While the current 6 month roadmap won't change, beyond that ATI is not counting on incredible support from Intel so ATI will begin focusing its efforts on AMD platforms exclusively at that point. If Intel wants ATI chipsets, ATI will supply them. And if you're wondering, CrossFire will continue to work on Intel chipsets.
Keep in mind that when we say 60-70% of ATI's chipset revenues come from Intel platforms, that doesn't actually mean ATI is selling a ton of chipsets. ATI accounts for slightly less than 10% of Intel platform chipsets sold recently, and about one fourth of AMD platform chipsets. However, even though they sell a decent number of chipsets, the quality of ATI chipsets has been considered something of a distant third place, with Intel and NVIDIA in the lead. ATI could lose all of their Intel chipset sales and still come out ahead if they can become the dominant chipset for AMD platforms.
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Zebo - Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - link
No worries...AMD runs a tight, efficient company that is accustomed to survivingthrough very hard times. AMD survived for a long time making chips that were cheap and almost as powerful as Intel's best. If they have to fall back to that business model to survive, they will. I personally loved those days of $40-$80 chips. But that's not realistic considering where AMD has been, their name and market presence currently, products on the table.. AMD is a mainstream player now with good reputation and large OEM's building thier boxes with them. They aint going anywhere.
poohbear - Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - link
so if the deal goes through, will the ATI brand name disappear? will we see AMD graphics cards instead of ATI graphics cards?Sunrise089 - Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - link
IMHO there would be no reason to abandon the second most valuable GPU name. When Ford bought Aston Marton they didn't suddenly rename the products things like Ford DB7.erwos - Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - link
Let me toss out a few random thoughts. I'm more of an economist than a businessman, but I took enough banking and finance to know enough to hurt myself.Almost all huge corporate mergers are not huge successes. Indeed, most of them tend to be failures unless the businesses are _very_ similar (gold mining company A buys out gold mining company B). My favorite example is Novell buying out SuSE and Ximian - everyone's doing operating systems, yet the best you can say was that it wasn't a complete failure. Certainly, the promised benefits haven't really emerged. Another good example is AOL and Time Warner.
The bad news here is that ATI and AMD are in two different sections of the industry, and that for the proposed benefits of this merger to work, they're going to have to integrate very tightly. To make things worse, the benefits of integration aren't all that clear. GPU on a CPU? Who's been asking for that? It has certain implications for the embedded market (think Geode and system on a chip applications), but they hardly needed to buy a company the size of ATI to accomplish that particular goal. And it couldn't be to hand ATI the better fabs, either - as Anand pointed out, AMD isn't going to have any extra fab space in the medium-term outlook.
My prediction: ATI-AMD will spend the next 9 months after the merger at _vastly_ decreased efficiency. Intel and nVidia will both be able to exploit this and take definitive leads in technology, at least for a while. In the long-term, ATI-AMD's dedication to high-end GPUs will fade, because the former-AMD executives running the company have absolutely no experience in the field. I am pessimistic, because, unfortunately, that is the historical truth.
Personally, I think that if GPU on a CPU becomes the prevailing way to go, nVidia will just buy out VIA or Transmeta. And they'll probably have just the same problems as ATI and AMD will have, too... But there's no reason to toss those problems on yourself until you have to, and there was no really compelling reason for AMD to buy ATI at this moment in time.
Kim Leo - Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - link
what are you talking about? ok its fine to comparte other situation like this, but AMD didnt buy ATI just for the "intergrated graphics in CPU" idea and even though Hector Ruiz dosn't have too much experience in this sector but ATI's CEO who will still be there does, and i don't think that AMD won't listen to what he has to say about it. I think this will be great, AMD and ATI will both benefit from this, they both get technologies that can be used in their own productserwos - Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - link
There aren't two CEOs. There's one, and his name is Hector Ruiz. At best, ATI's CEO will get pushed into director of the graphics division. More to the point, AMD's the much bigger company, and it's more likely their corporate culture is going to dominate ATI's. ATI's CEO's opinion will matter, but it's not going to sway AMD like it did/does ATI.If the plan isn't to integrate GPUs on CPUs, what other benefit was there to acquiring ATI? What techologies is ATI going to give AMD, and vica versa?
-Erwos
Sunrise089 - Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - link
Couldn't the desire to purchase a healthy company with a high profit margin in a fast growing industry be a benefit? I think everyone is too focused on integration in the short term. AMD had $$$, $$$ is there to spend or invest, and if the bean-counters at AMD think the ROI for buying ATI is higher than investing in a new fab or whatever than they make that decision.JarredWalton - Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - link
The major benefit seems to be AMD getting a company with a reasonable chipset business, and they can work that to create better business platforms, thus helping to penetrate the lucrative business sector. Except, penetrating the business sector is extremely difficult, especially the corporate world. "Buy Intel and Dell" is the standard decision, and even if Dell isn't picked, almost all businesses buy Intel systems. They did this all through the "NetBurst failure", so why would they change now that Intel has a good chip again (Core 2)?yacoub - Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - link
So will we see a reference cooler design on future ATI cards that is less noisy than the silly thing on the X1800/X1900 series? ;Pjones377 - Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - link
In Q106 the marketshare breakdown for all x86 chipsets were as follows....Intel 57%
VIA 15%
ATI 12%
Nvidia 9%
SiS 6%
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/chipsets/display/2006...">http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/chipsets/display/2006...
Different breakdown for Intel and AMD platforms. Basically Nvidia has almost no share in the Intel platform market while ATI sells in both.