AMD & ATI: The Acquisition from all Points of View
by Anand Lal Shimpi on August 1, 2006 10:26 PM EST- Posted in
- CPUs
Our Thoughts
Obviously each of the four companies we talked about today had their own take on the merger and no one here can really predict where things will go. On the one extreme, this deal could completely change everything; the combination of AMD and ATI could result in a powerhouse finally able to really compete with Intel while at the same time taking serious market share away from NVIDIA. On the other extreme, the combination could be a mess, resulting in a bloated company that is not much better off than before, with Intel and NVIDIA standing to reap the greatest rewards. It's far too early to tell and with the deal not even closed yet, there's no sense in counting any chickens.
That being said, there are some points we feel are worth discussing, and some analysis that can help give perspective to the whole merger. A lot of what we've presented so far is the company line from the four major CPU/Chipset manufacturers, and clearly there is going to be some bias in how each views the situation. It's far too easy to look at only one side of this story, so the following is designed to help examine the pros and cons of a handful of the facets of this merger.
Integrated Graphics is about to get Better
There's one definite outcome from the AMD/ATI deal, and that is an increase in the quality of integrated graphics. Currently, Intel is relatively unchallenged when it comes to integrated graphics solutions; independent GPU manufacturers like ATI and NVIDIA offer better integrated graphics solutions, but at much higher prices to keep their margins high. If AMD acquires ATI, we could in theory see an AMD platform with integrated graphics that would significantly outperform a similarly priced integrated Intel platform - hopefully this will force Intel to improve its integrated graphics.
Taking things one step further: if AMD puts a small ATI graphics core on-die or at least on-chip, the performance expectations for integrated graphics solutions would go up once more. Remember that one strength consoles have is the extremely low latency, high bandwidth interconnect between the CPU and GPU; a highly integrated CPU/GPU combo would be able to deliver that same performance advantage on a relatively low end PC.
Cool Stuff is Coming
On the investor call where AMD officially announced its plans to acquire ATI, a common theme discussed was AMD's Torrenza strategy. As AMD announced at its analyst day back in June, AMD plans on openly licensing its coherent HyperTransport bus allowing for companies like ATI or NVIDIA to develop GPUs and other co-processors that would plug into a Hyper Transport slot on a motherboard. The benefit is a very low latency, cache coherent interface between the CPU and any other device that it needs to feed large amounts of data to. With ATI operating under AMD's wing, AMD effectively guarantees that we'll see GPUs take advantage of Torrenza.
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leexgx - Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - link
i have only seen integrated graphics on nvidia based chip setsMost on board vdeio is VIA/s3 or sis integrated graphics (intel chip sets been intel video)
Calin - Thursday, August 3, 2006 - link
ATI RS480, RS482 and RS485 are in this game too (chipsets with integrated video). They were plagued by southbridge problems - slow USB performance mainly, and lack of features (like SATA 2). Whether or not this was detrimental to them, I don't know.(you can find mainboards with ATI integrated chipsets from MSI and ECS)
JarredWalton - Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - link
I agree with that. I think NVIDIA's comments are far more bravado than actual truth. However, if they can convince investors and consumers that they's "won the GPU war", it may not matter.My big problem with the deal: I don't know what AMD is doing spending $5.4 billon on ATI. Not that ATI is bad, but that's almost two new fabs. That's a lot of talented engineers making a lot of money for several years at least. I think ATI would be insane to not take the offer, but I feel AMD is almost equally insane to make the offer in the first place.
Furen - Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - link
AMD is borrowing the money to buy a viable, self-sufficient company. Convincing banks to let you borrow money for two fabs that will help you out 3+ years down the line is not very easy, especially considering that most people seem to think that AMD's growth is slowing down. Heck, having two extra fabs in 3 years could mean that AMD will just have lots of extra capacity with no use for it. Also, $5.4B for ATI is dirt cheap. Well, maybe not dirt cheap but undervalued considering that its portfolio rivals or surpasses nVidia's in many ways.AnandThenMan - Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - link
It is a big gamble for AMD, no doubt. A make-or-break deal in fact. But I would hope that the top brass has carefully considered the costs and the future markets/profits/advantages. With any high stakes game, the rewards are spectacular, but the cost of failing can mean you're history.
I suppose having new fabs does you little good if you can't offer a platform to the Dell's and HP's out there. There is no doubt in my mind about one thing, AMD is aiming straight at Intel's integrated platform approach.
Calin - Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - link
AMD is trying to get in the game of long-term selling. The corporate computers initiative they had some years ago (or maybe a year ago) was a first step - "freeze" a computer configuration, which you can then offer for a long time (like 3 years). If a computer breaks, move its hard drive in a new computer in the same line, and have everything working with GUARANTEED no problems.AMD did good in taking over the enthusiast market by storm - but this market has NO loyality whatsoever - people will upgrade everything they need and everything they don't in order to get the next big thing. Having a guaranteed revenue of mostly guaranteed value beats that (having an non-guaranteed revenue of big or small value, like it happens now).
AMD is much more ready to go in the corporate market - selling desktop computers, not just servers as it did until now.
Also, take into account that if AMD is behind in the "next big thing" (whatever this might be), it really does not have the money to play catchup. Intel has both the money and the market inertia to continue to be a big player when everything else is against its products. So, AMD is puting its future on a bet that the next big thing will be core-integrated graphics. If this works, they would reap huge benefits - just like they were able to with the Athlon64 on desktops/Opteron on servers (and somewhat Turion on mobiles). Before the Opteron days, AMD was largely inexistant in server space (the Athlon MP started to make a buzz, but they had little market share).
Will the money have been better spent on two fabs? AMD and ATI are both using external partners for creating chips, and this is more expensive only in the long run. In the short run, paying more for chips beats paying 3 billions to have your fab ready in three years. I figure the use of external fabs will continue long time in the future, and just the top of the line products will be built on AMD's fabs.
darkdemyze - Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - link
You say AMD doesn't have the money to play catch-up, and this is true that the whole deal is "a bet." But how else is AMD supposed to catch up? With C2D being released? Intel is going to have a huge impact on the performance sector by the end of the year - about the same time this merger is projected to be completed. What I mean by this is Intel is now ahead of the curve on AMD with this new architecture and according to their "new architecture every 2 years" roadmap, and Intel intends to not let the performance crown slip again as they did with Pentium4.
So what is AMD to do to keep up? As you said, place a bet on "the next big thing" and hope for the best. I'm not discreditting AMD for K8L, or Torrenza for that matter. But I think at the very least Torrenza will be greatly effected by this endeavor. Personally I feel this is a very positive aquisition.
Calin - Thursday, August 3, 2006 - link
K8L is just a few months from launch, and it might get AMD to performance parity with Intel (or exceed Core 2 Duo, or be left behind). I am hoping for a draw or a win for AMD.What AMD needs is a cash cow (as Athlon64 was until now). Will the ATI acquisition bring this to table? It could very well be so, and there are enough niches and market slices where this strategy is a winner.
Unfortunately, this might (or might not) reduce the competition in high-end video cards arena...
Nelsieus - Wednesday, August 2, 2006 - link
I strongly disagree with you.This, thus far, has been the best summarization coverage I've read on this issue.
PeteRoy - Tuesday, August 1, 2006 - link
AMD did not have it's own chipset with integrated graphics, audio and lan which is why it never made it to the offices where the big money is.